Canada headed to the polls on Monday to elect a new government, under the shadow of an escalating crisis with the United States, as President Donald Trump threatened annexation of America’s northern neighbor.
Polling stations opened nationwide, with voters choosing between the incumbent Liberal Party, now led by Mark Carney, and the resurgent Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre.
Trump added fuel to the fire on election day with a post on his Truth Social platform, declaring Canada would face “ZERO TARIFFS” if it agreed to “become the cherished 51st state.” He added: “IT WAS MEANT TO BE!”
Carney vs Poilievre
Mark Carney, 60, a former investment banker and central bank governor in both Canada and Britain, only recently replaced Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister. Though lacking prior elected office experience, Carney has emphasized his financial expertise as crucial for leading Canada through economic turbulence caused by Trump’s tariffs and threats.
“The United States under Trump wants to break us, so they can own us,” Carney warned repeatedly during the campaign. He urged voters to choose stability and experience, saying, “We don’t need chaos, we need calm. We don’t need anger, we need an adult.”
Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, 45, a career politician, has focused on domestic issues that have plagued Trudeau’s tenure, such as the rising cost of living, crime, and housing shortages. Poilievre has criticized Trump but blamed the Liberals for leaving Canada vulnerable to external threats.
“You cannot handle another four years of this,” Poilievre told voters over the weekend, promising change and a tougher stance on internal governance.
The Trump Effect
The race, initially favoring the Conservatives by over 20 points in January when Trudeau announced his resignation, tightened dramatically after Carney’s ascension and Trump’s interference.
A final CBC poll aggregator released on Sunday put the Liberals ahead with 42.8% support compared to the Conservatives’ 38.8%. However, given Canada’s electoral system, seat distribution in Parliament not the popular vote will ultimately determine who forms government.
Surveys show voters perceive Carney as better equipped to confront Trump’s aggression. Montreal engineer Hamza Fahri, 28, said, “I wanted to vote for change, but in the end, I’ll vote for Carney because he’s a strong, serious man and that’s what we need to face Trump.”
Yet others, like Kelsey Leschasin from Saskatchewan, stressed domestic frustrations: “I don’t agree with how the Liberals are running our country. We need change.”
Julie Demers, a 37-year-old mother of two, lamented that Trump overshadowed critical Canadian issues. “It’s unfortunate that we only talked about American politics,” she said.
High Stakes and Historic Turnaround
If Carney’s Liberals win, it will be considered one of the most dramatic political recoveries in Canadian history.
Canadians are electing 343 members of Parliament, requiring 172 seats for a majority. While the Liberals won a majority in 2015, they governed with a minority since 2019. The influence of smaller parties the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Quebecois could once again prove decisive in determining the outcome.
Nearly 29 million Canadians are eligible to vote in a country spanning six time zones, with a record 7.3 million casting advance ballots.
The world watches closely as Canada decides whether to stay the course with Carney’s promises of resilience — or pivot to Poilievre’s pledge of internal reform amid unprecedented external pressure.
