Poverty in Nigeria rose to 63% in 2025 even as inflation slowed significantly, highlighting weak transmission of macroeconomic improvements to household welfare, according to a new report by the World Bank.
The development was contained in the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update released in Abuja on Tuesday, titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development.”
The report showed a steady increase in poverty rates, rising from 56% in 2023 to 61% in 2024, before reaching 63% in 2025. This translates to roughly 140 million people living below the poverty line.
The World Bank noted that the worsening poverty trend occurred despite a sharp decline in inflation over the same period.
Data referenced in the report indicated that Nigeria’s headline inflation fell from 34.8% in December 2024 to 15.15% in December 2025, while food inflation dropped from 39.84% to 10.84%.
Despite easing price pressures, the World Bank said household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset earlier inflation shocks that eroded purchasing power.
It explained that the slowdown in inflation has not yet translated into improved living standards, as many households are still recovering from previous price surges.
The report also pointed to global shocks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which contributed to higher food, energy, and transport costs, worsening pressure on low-income households.
Beyond inflation, the report highlighted structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s economy as key constraints to poverty reduction.
It noted that growth has been concentrated in services and industry, while agriculture—where more than half of poor Nigerians are employed—has lagged behind.
This imbalance, the bank said, has limited income growth among vulnerable populations and slowed the impact of overall economic growth on poverty reduction.
The World Bank projected that poverty levels may begin to decline gradually from 2026 as inflation continues to ease and macroeconomic conditions stabilise.
It forecast that the poverty rate could fall to about 59% by 2028, driven mainly by lower food inflation and moderate economic growth. However, it warned that progress would likely remain slow due to weak job creation, low agricultural productivity, and persistent inequality.
Speaking at the report’s launch in Abuja, a World Bank economist said sustained inflation reduction and more inclusive growth are essential to improving living standards in Nigeria.
The institution also emphasised the importance of investing in early childhood development, describing it as a critical foundation for long-term productivity and poverty reduction.
Government representatives at the event reiterated ongoing efforts to expand investment-led growth and strengthen social safety nets aimed at cushioning vulnerable households from rising living costs.
